Search results for "EMU Enlargement"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
EMU Enlargement, Stabilization Cost and Automatic Stabilizers
2008
We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spendingandrevenue–responsivenessandpersistence–, a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers, we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Drawing on quarterly data, we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Squaremethod for eight EuropeanUnion countries plus the US. The results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance (including those related to the current crisis) are reflected in the estimates of persistence and resp…
Are the New EU Countries Ready for the EURO? A Comparison of Costs and Benefits
2006
This paper examines the main macroeconomic determinants of costs and benefits of adopting the euro for the new EU member countries, and compares them to those of the older members. We show that these cost and benefit factors exhibit substantial variability across the countries considered. Our findings suggest that, in terms of price stability, the position of the new members is overall better than some EMU countries, such as Portugal and Greece. At the same time, we identify countries (such as Slovenia, Cyprus, and Hungary) whose business cycle is already well synchronized with EMU's, but also countries (such as Latvia and Estonia) with lower synchronization, and countries (such as Romania,…
Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union
2009
This paper analyses sectoral business cycle synchronization in an enlarged European Union using annual data for the period 1980-2005. In particular, we try to identify which sector for each country is driving the aggregate output business cycle synchronization. Overall, the sectors that provide the most relevant contribution are Industry, Building and Construction, and Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry. In contrast, the Services sector, the largest one in terms of valued added share, shows a relative low business cycle synchronization and volatility, implying that it contributes only marginally to the aggregate output business cycle synchronization.